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Calculated Risk Latest Posts
WSJ Report: Fannie Mae to Eliminate "declining market" Rules
From the WSJ: Fannie Is Poised To Scrap Policy Over Down Payments Fannie Mae is expected to announce Friday that it is scrapping a policy requiring higher down payments on home mortgages in areas where house prices are falling. The change comes in response to protests from vital political allies... Read more...
Published 4 hours ago
Fed's Mishkin: How Should We Respond to Asset Price Bubbles?
From Fed Governor Frederic S. Mishkin: How Should We Respond to Asset Price Bubbles?Rex Nutting at MarketWatch has the story: Fed should deflate some bubbles, Mishkin saysThe Federal Reserve should try to aggressively deflate some types of asset bubbles before they can harm the economy, Fed Gov.... Read more...
Published 4 hours ago
Fed Loans to Banks Still Increasing
From Bloomberg: Fed's Direct Loans to Banks Climb to Record Level The Federal Reserve's direct loans of cash to commercial banks climbed to the highest level on record in the past week, a sign of continued stress in financial markets that threatens to curtail credit for households and companies.... Read more...
Published 6 hours ago
Kasriel: In the Eye of the Hurricane
From Paul Kasriel and Asha Bangalore at Northern Trust: In the Eye of the Economic Hurricane There seems to be sentiment developing that the U.S. has weathered the worst of the current cyclical economic storm and blue skies are ahead. We disagree. Any blue skies you see are likely to be short... Read more...
Published 7 hours ago
USAToday: 'Foreclosures take an emotional toll'
This is a very sad story from the USA Today: Foreclosures take an emotional toll on homeowners (hat tip Cathy and others)The escalating pace of foreclosures and rising fears among some homeowners about keeping up with their mortgages are creating a range of emotional problems, mental-health... Read more...
Published 9 hours ago
NAHB: Home Builder Confidence Slides
"[T]he message is very clear: The single-family housing market is still deteriorating..." NAHB President Sandy Dunn"[T]he housing market has shown no evidence of improvement thus far. In fact, conditions have continued to deteriorate in recent times... NAHB Chief Economist David SeidersClick on... Read more...
Published 11 hours ago
Recessions and Industrial Production
"[A] recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)The Federal Reserve reported... Read more...
Published 12 hours ago
Foreclosures moving up the Housing Chain
A "Foreclosure Magazine" arrived on my doorstep yesterday. There were close to 200 homes offered for sale as distressed properties, mostly in Orange County, CA with some in the Inland Empire.Although most of the listing in Orange County are in the $400 to $800 thousand range, there are a number... Read more...
Published 15 hours ago
Downtown Chicago Condo Numbers
As I mentioned in the previous post, most condos are not included in the new home sales and inventory numbers from the Census Bureau (they are included in housing starts).Here are some numbers for the Chicago market from the Chicago Tribune: Record condo numbers to saturate downtown (hat tip Lee)... Read more...
Published 1 day ago
Condo Stats and Negative Externalities
The NY Times has an article on the negative externalities of some Condo Life: Foreclosures, Higher Fees and Mowing the Lawn When people buy condos, they expect their monthly fees will cover many of the responsibilities that they would otherwise have as single-family homeowners, like cutting the... Read more...
Published 1 day ago
On Freddie Mac Accounting Change
From Bloomberg: Freddie Mac Accounting Changes Reduce Losses By $2.6 Billion (hat tip SC) A change in the way the company values some assets that aren't traded reduced credit losses by $1.3 billion, while a separate rule that lets the company pick and choose which assets to measure contributed an... Read more...
Published 1 day ago
Freddie Mac on Walking Away
More from the conference call: Analyst: Quick question on your direction in terms of housing price declines and the impact on credit costs. Have you looked at the impact of rising LTV's have on the projected credit cost. In other words, if people get close to and then get under water, does the... Read more...
Published 1 day ago