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David Smith's EconomicsUK.com Latest Posts
Credit conditions tightening
Apart from Marks & Spencer, which has been making the headlines, there is more slowdown evidence from the Bank of England. Its latest credit conditions survey, here, shows that lenders tightened credit to households and businesses in the second quarter... Read more...
Published
Time to ease the loan stranglehold
Something extraordinary is happening in the housing market. We are seeing an unprecedented collapse in mortgage lending and no sign of an official or private-sector response. Housebuilders are hurting badly, as are others that rely on a thriving housing... Read more...
Published
GDP revised down, record low for savings
The new estimate for first quarter GDP (gross domestic product) was revised down to 0.3% (from 0.4%), with year-on-year growth lowered from 2.5% to 2.3%. Most striking was what happened to the personal sector - real household disposable incomes fell... Read more...
Published
Slow growth will tame the inflation beast
Your starter for 10. Who said: "The rise in inflation that we are experiencing today is a worldwide phenomenon ... Indeed, on a genuinely comparable basis, inflation in this country has increased over the past six months by less... Read more...
Published
Retail sales surge, King's gloomy
Some figures surprise, some are real shockers. A 3.5% jump in retail sales last month definitely fell into the latter category. People will probably have a Victor Meldrew response to this, the largest ever monthly jump in sales volume. More... Read more...
Published
MPC considered rate hike
The minutes of the monetary policy committee's June meeting showed, as expected, an 8-1 vote for no change, with David Blanchflower again the lone voice calling for a cut from 5%. But the story in the minutes is that the... Read more...
Published
Inflation at 3.3%, and a letter
Inflation rose above 3.3%, as generally expected, triggering a second governor-chancellor letter (and the chancellor's response) in more than 11 years of independence. Food and energy were the main culprits behnd the rise from 3%, though "core" inflation also edged... Read more...
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Bank should not raise rates over oil
The next few days will do much to determine whether prospects for BritainÂ's economy over the next 12 to 18 months are merely poor, or start to look dreadful. On Tuesday the May inflation figures will be published and,... Read more...
Published
Migrants, wages and unemployment
Have migrant workers held down the wages of indigenous employees and increased unemployment among the young and unskilled? Not according to a new paper by Sarah Lemos and Jonathan Portes, published by the Department of Work and Pensions. It says,... Read more...
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Unemployment up, earnings benign
The slowdown can't shield Britain from global inflationary pressures but it is helping contain second-round effects via the labour market. Official figures showed that alongside a fourth consecutive rise in unemployment, earnings growth dropped to 3.2%, which will come as... Read more...
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King on the banks
Mervyn King's keenly-awaited speech to the British Bankers' Association was interesting in its description of recent events and the relationship between the Bank and the banks. The governor is critical of the banks but stresses that they are now working... Read more...
Published
More inflationary news
The producer prices numbers were predictably bad, with both the input and output series at new records. Output price inflation jumped to 8.9% while headline input price inflation was an astonishing 27.9%, even ahead of last week's surge in oil... Read more...
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