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Latest blog posts from Fractals of Change

Don’t Catch Falling Knives
During the collapse of the dot.com bubble, I believed that the stock of the company I'd founded, ITXC, was grossly undervalued; so I bought some both hoping to profit and also to calm the market by showing investors that I was willing to risk my own money in the stock â€" when CEOs buy it's... Read more...
Published 10 hours ago

Bailout Blues
Last Week "We'll surely fail If you don't bail," Said Wall Street to the gov.  "The Dow'll crash, Without your cash. Send a trill our way."  The gov, it caved, And quickly gave, The bankers all they craved. This Week "We gave you cash, But the Dow did crash, Oh Wall Street," cried the gov. ... Read more...
Published a day ago

Deflation Primer
Deflation is the debtor's worst enemy just as inflation is the debtor's best friend. In inflationary times the value of the asset you borrowed money to buy goes up so quickly that you can always sell and come out ahead despite the interest you paid in the meantime. In deflationary time, the... Read more...
Published 2 days ago

Don’t Pay Ransom
The world shouldn't pay ransom to Somali pirates; clearly the ransoms paid lead to more piracy. The US shouldn't pay ransom to Wall Street; ransoms paid will reward past reckless behavior and incent reckless behavior in the future. They won't "save the ecomomy". I'm sure you're getting as tired... Read more...
Published 7 days ago

Now What?
The House defeat of the bailout bill was good for both our democracy and our economy. Even the prospect of Wall Street holding a gun to its own collective head and threatening to pull the trigger - even the prospect of not getting the next round of campaign contributions â€" was not enough to... Read more...
Published a week ago

Toxic Debt Recipe with Free Spreadsheet
Now that it looks like the Wall Street bailout will pass - unfortunately, there's no point in crying over spilled milk; better that we all learn to make toxic debt since the government will be creating a market for it. We can't afford to waste time making software, growing crops, or building... Read more...
Published a week ago

Buffett’s Bailout Blackmail
" From the Wall Street Journal: "If Congress fails to approve the bailout, Mr. Buffett says, all bets are off. His investment in Goldman will "get killed, and so will all our other investments."" This article and others explain how Buffett stands to make a large profit if his deal to buy Goldman... Read more...
Published 2 weeks ago

Just Say No
I've been wrong to advocate hedging the bailout bill with conditions; we should just say "NO". We can take a fraction of the $700 billion dollars we save and use it for specific anti-recession measures. Let's start rebuilding our power grid; fix some bridges; maybe even help some homeowners with... Read more...
Published 2 weeks ago

Capping Executive Salaries in the Bailout
Update: I was wrong to try to hedge the bailout with conditions. We should just say "no". see http://blog.tomevslin.com/2008/09/just-say-no.html Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson believes that his ex-colleagues on Wall Street would let their companies and the economy go belly-up if their... Read more...
Published 2 weeks ago

Bailout equals Bankruptcy
Update: I was wrong to try to hedge the bailout with conditions. We should just say "no". see http://blog.tomevslin.com/2008/09/just-say-no.html. Let's assume there really are toxic weapons of mass economic destruction in the portfolios of the world's banks which need to be seized before they... Read more...
Published 2 weeks ago

Now For the Good News…
It's tempting not to put any content into a post with this title today. Even a perpetual optimist like me finds his irrational exuberance dampened by what's happening in the world's financial markets. But there is good news and it's more fun to write about than doom and gloom. Inflation was down... Read more...
Published 3 weeks ago

Invent, Baby, Invent
Tom Friedman says we ought to be chanting "Invent, Baby, Invent" rather than "Drill, Baby, Drill". Forget that this is a false dichotomy (or read this post), invention IS a good idea. I've spent most of my career inventing both technology and business models - successfully and unsuccessfully,... Read more...
Published 3 weeks ago